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      煤炭貿易

      物 流

      金 融

      行業資訊
      10月下旬煤炭量增價跌趨勢明顯

               10月以來,煤炭供需基本面發生明顯改變,產能、產量、庫存持續增加,需求減弱,價格下跌。

       

        產能方面,10月份以來,重點產煤地區晉陜蒙三省區煤炭企業核增產能3000萬噸/年,另有6000萬噸/年產能核增項目上報了產能置換方案。先進產能加速入市,新核準煤礦加快投運,前期因安全檢查、環保檢查停產的煤炭企業也將恢復生產,10月下旬會有大量優質產能持續得到釋放。

       

        產量方面,9月份,內蒙古生產煤炭7521萬噸,同比增加791萬噸,增長11.75%,1-9月份累計生產煤炭68066萬噸,同比增加7703萬噸,增長12.76%;9月份,陜西省原煤產量達4921萬噸,同比增加931萬噸,上升23.33%,1-9月份累計生產原煤37585萬噸,同比增加3967萬噸,上升11.80%。10月份以來,山西、內蒙古、陜西等煤炭主產區產量持續增加。

       

        庫存方面,自10月10日起,秦皇島港煤炭庫存連續15天保持在700萬噸以上,10月23日庫存達740萬噸,創今年新高。大型電廠提前補充庫存基本完成,重點電廠電煤庫存充足。

       

        需求方面,一方面水電等清潔能源發力明顯增強,另一方面,夏季用煤高峰已過,隨著天氣逐步轉涼,火電需求也在持續減弱。在消費減量政策和“秋季多雨”、水電替代效應增加的情況下,煤炭消費量有所下滑。

       

        價格方面,截至目前,已有神華、中煤、同煤、山煤、伊泰等近30家煤炭企業主動調降煤價,降幅為10元/噸到30元/噸不等,其中山煤集團還兩度降價。據統計,這些降價煤企去年產量超過18億噸,占全國產量超過53%。

       

        綜合考慮以上產能、產量、庫存、需求、價格等因素,市場分析認為,煤炭量增價跌趨勢明顯,煤炭價格進入穩步下降通道。


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